🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.